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Sunday 7 June 2020

Thinking Positively Post-Bihar

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[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he Bihar election result is a political loss for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but it may well pave the way for the core agenda of Indian economic growth. The result is a rude wake-up call for the party and the government and may see certain course corrections before the coming Winter Session of Parliament, which is expected to commence on 26 November.

Election result
The keenly contested election to the State Assembly of Bihar saw the coalition of caste-based regional political parties defeating the BJP, the Hindu right wing party that swept to rule India in May 2014.  The election result is important both politically and economically for the country.

The final tally of 243-member Bihar Assembly is as under:

Bihar Result Status
243 out of 243 Constituencies
Party Won Leading Total
Bharatiya Janata Party 53 0 53
Indian National Congress 27 0 27
Janata Dal (United) 71 0 71
Lok Jan Shakti Party 2 0 2
Rashtriya Janata Dal 80 0 80
Rashtriya Lok Samta Party 2 0 2
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation) 3 0 3
Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) 1 0 1
Independent 4 0 4
Total 243 0 243
Partywise Vote Share
Bihar vs 2

PartyName Votes Wise(%)
BJP {24.4%,9308015} 9308015
RJD {18.4%,6995509} 6995509
JD(U) {16.8%,6416414} 6416414
IND {9.4%,3580953} 3580953
INC {6.7%,2539638} 2539638
LJP {4.8%,1840834} 1840834
BLSP {2.6%,976787} 976787
HAMS {2.3%,864856} 864856
BSP {2.1%,788024} 788024
CPI(ML)(L) {1.5%,587701} 587701
CPI {1.4%,516699} 516699
JAPL {1.4%,514748} 514748
SP {1.0%,385511} 385511
CPM {0.6%,232149} 232149
SHS {0.6%,211131} 211131
NCP {0.5%,185437} 185437
SKLP {0.3%,108851} 108851
JMM {0.3%,103940} 103940
GJDS {0.2%,92279} 92279
AIMIM {0.2%,80248} 80248
BMUP {0.2%,69864} 69864
JDR {0.1%,54975} 54975
RSWD {0.1%,38358} 38358
RVNP {0.1%,34394} 34394
SASAPT {0.1%,31957} 31957
NJPI {0.1%,25829} 25829
AAHPty {0.1%,20663} 20663
RaJPa {0.0%,14291} 14291
AKBMP {0.0%,13329} 13329
GaAP {0.0%,13085} 13085
BNSKP {0.0%,13048} 13048
ABHM {0.0%,12268} 12268
AVIRP {0.0%,12128} 12128
pms {0.0%,12096} 12096
SUCI {0.0%,11621} 11621
BhNP {0.0%,11239} 11239
SPL {0.0%,11219} 11219
HCP {0.0%,11128} 11128
SSD {0.0%,10495} 10495
LD {0.0%,10375} 10375
RSMD {0.0%,9938} 9938
lad {0.0%,9830} 9830
TNRMPI {0.0%,9809} 9809
IEMC {0.0%,9608} 9608
ManJP {0.0%,9283} 9283
JKNPP {0.0%,9156} 9156
AHFBK {0.0%,8719} 8719
LSSP {0.0%,8431} 8431
BMF {0.0%,8394} 8394
AJPR {0.0%,8387} 8387
RSadP {0.0%,8365} 8365
BBMP {0.0%,8002} 8002
BKP {0.0%,7707} 7707
HVD {0.0%,7611} 7611
BJKVP {0.0%,7518} 7518
SP(I) {0.0%,7473} 7473
IUML {0.0%,6960} 6960
AIFB {0.0%,6936} 6936
JHP {0.0%,6848} 6848
NADP {0.0%,6706} 6706
SDPI {0.0%,6654} 6654
BDlP {0.0%,6498} 6498
RPI {0.0%,6472} 6472
SBSP {0.0%,6442} 6442
PBI {0.0%,5568} 5568
ABHKP {0.0%,5420} 5420
BJKD {0.0%,5393} 5393
VIP {0.0%,5380} 5380
BVM {0.0%,4987} 4987
KVD {0.0%,4633} 4633
SJDD {0.0%,4629} 4629
BMtrP {0.0%,4613} 4613
BJND {0.0%,4609} 4609
BJHP {0.0%,4470} 4470
NTP {0.0%,4467} 4467
PMP {0.0%,4224} 4224
RPP {0.0%,4184} 4184
RJJM {0.0%,4141} 4141
IPty {0.0%,4115} 4115
BhaSP {0.0%,3820} 3820
BIP {0.0%,3737} 3737
NPEP {0.0%,3709} 3709
BNDl {0.0%,3643} 3643
jhspt {0.0%,3641} 3641
ravp {0.0%,3542} 3542
VKAM {0.0%,3535} 3535
BLRP {0.0%,3529} 3529
MOSP {0.0%,3525} 3525
KSJP {0.0%,3337} 3337
SaBP {0.0%,3238} 3238
RPI(A) {0.0%,3205} 3205
BYPD {0.0%,3184} 3184
SWAP {0.0%,3179} 3179
RJPty {0.0%,3099} 3099
RSP {0.0%,3045} 3045
MVM {0.0%,3038} 3038
LKJP {0.0%,2992} 2992
RMGP {0.0%,2971} 2971
NJP {0.0%,2928} 2928
JKM {0.0%,2890} 2890
SAAFP {0.0%,2795} 2795
GJNP {0.0%,2735} 2735
RshJP {0.0%,2493} 2493
KS {0.0%,2447} 2447
BBC {0.0%,2417} 2417
AD {0.0%,2407} 2407
SaKD {0.0%,2381} 2381
BED {0.0%,2307} 2307
MCPI {0.0%,2233} 2233
AMiP {0.0%,2161} 2161
BaJaP {0.0%,2114} 2114
RAHM {0.0%,2002} 2002
RaIP {0.0%,1961} 1961
JDP {0.0%,1916} 1916
SWSP {0.0%,1864} 1864
BDeP {0.0%,1857} 1857
LSD {0.0%,1846} 1846
AAMJP {0.0%,1768} 1768
BDBP {0.0%,1764} 1764
RMEP {0.0%,1584} 1584
RJPD {0.0%,1569} 1569
RsJnP {0.0%,1496} 1496
BJJD {0.0%,1488} 1488
SABJAN {0.0%,1402} 1402
natp {0.0%,1363} 1363
BKVP {0.0%,1303} 1303
RJnJnP {0.0%,1300} 1300
JRVP {0.0%,1266} 1266
RYP {0.0%,1264} 1264
JPS {0.0%,1219} 1219
DSP {0.0%,1194} 1194
SoJP {0.0%,1145} 1145
SHD {0.0%,1121} 1121
BKKMP {0.0%,1076} 1076
KSVP {0.0%,1024} 1024
ABJS {0.0%,1015} 1015
HKRD {0.0%,976} 976
JHD {0.0%,976} 976
BJPARTY {0.0%,945} 945
RGD {0.0%,927} 927
LPSP {0.0%,923} 923
SAP {0.0%,891} 891
ATBP {0.0%,834} 834
LKSE {0.0%,787} 787
RSPTY {0.0%,770} 770
LTSD {0.0%,739} 739
ABRS {0.0%,736} 736
MaJP {0.0%,602} 602
aicp {0.0%,563} 563
RKSP {0.0%,480} 480
HND {0.0%,466} 466
HMSP {0.0%,446} 446
NaLP {0.0%,425} 425
prrp {0.0%,400} 400
AIFB(S) {0.0%,382} 382
DKP {0.0%,346} 346
C(S) {0.0%,330} 330
NYP {0.0%,242} 242
NOTA {2.5%,947276} 947276

Nitish Kumar will continue to be the Bihar Chief Minister for the third successive term.

Political impact
Nitish Kumar will emerge as the principal opponent of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the national election 2019. There will be a strong anti-BJP group in Parliament. Nitish will be supported by opposition chief ministers like Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal to create a nationwide anti-Modi narrative.

Prime Minister Modi and BJP party President Amit Shah will have to accommodate dissenters within the party as their ability to win elections has been considerably diluted with the Bihar result. Election are due in the largest Indian State Uttar Pradesh (2017), eastern States of West Bengal and Assam (2016) and southern State of Kerala (2016).

Narendra Modi clearly lost his appeal to voters during the last 18 months in power. He has to relook at his governance model. By addressing 31 rallies, Modi had in effect placed himself as the principal face against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

The regional parties in States like West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu will bargain hard with the central government on policy matters. The government will find it difficult to pass reform measures requiring parliamentary approval.

Economic impact
Prime Minister Modi will act fast on economic measures, will pay attention to implementation and less on announcing new schemes. This government has 3½ years more to deliver. A drastic Cabinet reshuffle is expected with induction of capable ministers with a focus on delivery taking charge.

Measures to bring in a ‘feel good’ factor in the economy will see market sentiment improving and growth rate boosted. The much needed fast forwarding of reform measures are expected. The ongoing focus on “ease of doing business” will intensify. Serious investors in India may now hope for a proactive government machinery so as to invigorate the “Make in India” drive. Some big but pending reforms like introduction of GST will have to be pushed through with political consensus. The government will depend on good offices of Nitish Kumar to bring all on board.

Administrative impact
There will be a rethinking on the government’s media strategy. The constant negative reports have hurt the BJP politically and are negating Modi’s effort to win foreign investment. Unless matured communication with quick response to any crisis situation is adopted, the Modi Government will lose its shine fast.

Policy measures will have more deliberations. The government had been giving the impression that all measures were pushed through by a strong centrally controlled authority. This does not go well in a democracy like India where media is powerful.

Prime Minister Modi won the national election in 2014 on the promise of bringing in development. The government will fast-track the measures and is expected to check the suitably non-development related agenda sponsored by the culturally entrenched section of the party.

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Sugato Hazra
Sugato Hazrahttps://www.sirfnews.com/
Public policy analyst based in Delhi
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