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Wednesday 29 January 2020

Sena needs alliance desperately; BJP can do without it: Poll

This opinion poll found out also how the Congress and NCP would fare without an alliance; like the Shiv Sena, they will both regret it

New Delhi/Mumbai: The Maharashtra Assembly election is going to be among the first two state polls to be held after the return of the Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre. In this opinion poll, Shiv Sena appears to be in a desperate need for the alliance with the BJP.

The Election Commission said today that Assembly elections for 288 seats in Maharashtra will be held on 21 October and the results will be declared on 24 October.

Following the announcement of the elections, a series of opinion polls from news channels and survey agencies have started. According to an opinion poll by ABP News/C-Voter — Sirf News has earlier published their poll on the Haryana election — the BJP’s return to power in Maharashtra is certain. The poll says the BJP will once again emerge as the largest party in Maharashtra, with the alliance with Shiv Sena helping NDA attain the majority, while the Congress-NCP alliance will retain the second position.

According to the opinion poll, out of a total of 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra, the BJP-led alliance could win 205 seats. The Congress-NCP alliance may get around 55 seats. Apart from this, 28 seats are going to others.

The BJP-led alliance is getting the most votes in the Assembly election in Maharashtra. According to the poll, the ruling alliance is estimated to get 46% share of votes. The Congress-led alliance is getting 30% and others 24%.

BJP, Sena, Congress, NCP in absence of alliance

The alliances of BJP-Shiv Sena and Congress-NCP in Maharashtra have not been announced yet. If BJP-Shiv Sena and Congress-NCP alliances do not happen (hypothetically), this is how they will be placed when the election results are out, says the poll:

  • BJP: 144
  • Shiv Sena: 39
  • Congress: 21
  • NCP: 20
  • Others: 64

Even if there is not a BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, the BJP is likely to get a majority on its own.

Percentage of votes BJP, Sena, INC, NCP would get if each goes it alone

According to the opinion poll, if Maharashtra does not see any alliance, these will be the percentages of votes going to different political parties:

  • BJP: 31%
  • Shiv Sena: 15%
  • Congress: 16%
  • NCP: 12%
  • Other: 26%

No alliance would be loss for Shiv Sena, gain for BJP

If there is no alliance between BJP and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, it will be a loss for the latter. The Shiv Sena will be reduced from 63 to the 39 seats it had got in the 2014 Assembly elections. The BJP would be the biggest beneficiary. According to the opinion poll, the BJP score will, in such a scenario, rise from 122 of 2014 to 144 seats.

If the Congress and NCP do not form an alliance, both the parties would be at a disadvantage. The Congress would slip from 42 seats in 2014 to 21 and the NCP would fall to 21 from 41 seats.

Choice of chief minister

The incumbent Devendra Fadnavis has a huge lead over the competition here according to the ABP News/C-Voter poll.

  • Devendra Fadnavis: 39%
  • Uddhav Thackeray: 6%
  • Ashok Chavan: 5%
  • Sharad Pawar: 5%

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