New Delhi — If you have been wondering how come the weather department has been getting its predictions more or less correct for the past few years, here is the reason. The weather forecasting systems in the country are comparable to most of the countries in the world with respect to weather forecasting. Minister of State for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences YS Chowdary, in a reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha today, said that during the past few years, the Earth System Science Organization-India Meteorological Department (ESSO-IMD) has been continuously improving weather prediction services in terms of accuracy, lead time and associated impact.
The minister said that, to improve further, the ESSO-IMD had taken following steps:
- Upgrade of observation systems,
- Advanced data assimilation tools,
- Advanced communication and IT infrastructure,
- High-performance computing (HPC) systems and
- Intensive/sophisticated training of ESSO- IMD personnel to facilitate the implementation of advanced global/regional/ meso-scale prediction models for improving the accuracy of weather forecasts in all temporal and spatial scales and for quick dissemination of weather forecast assessments/warnings to the users.
The HPC systems have been recently up-scaled to 1.2 petaflops to support the ongoing efforts for enhancing the weather forecasting capacities through assimilating all available global satellite radiance data for the production of forecast products at 22 km grid globally and 9km/3km grid over India/regional/mega city domains.
During the 12th Plan, under the National Monsoon Mission initiative, other institutions of ESSO, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (ESSO-IITM), Pune, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (ESSO-INCOIS), Hyderabad, and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ESSO-NCMRWF), NOIDA, are building a state-of-the-art ocean atmospheric weather and climate model for
- Improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and
- Improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) so that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of ESSO-IMD.
In collaboration with the US, a “monsoon desk” has been set up for working jointly for improving seasonal forecast of the Indian monsoon rainfall. Through this forum, Indian and US Scientists are exchanging their ideas and sharing their expertise. This effort has led to appreciable improvements in the efficiency of models in making better forecasts, Chowdary added.