Although India and China has agreed to stop sending more troops to Ladakh front-line, New Delhi is prepared for a long haul of multiple rounds of military-diplomatic talks before a firm political understanding is reached between two sides on complete disengagement. “This is going to be a long drawn out process and it will be foolhardy to assume that results will be achieved in one or two rounds of talks. While both sides have agreed in principle not to send more troops to the border, there is no means for both sides to verify this on the ground as neither would like to share information collected through communication intercepts and spatial intelligence,” said a senior official.
As of now, there is no change in the real situation with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops still on Finger 4 mountainous spur on north Pangong Tso. Indian Army dominates the Rezang La-Rechin La ridgeline on the Line of Actual Control (LoAC).
There has been no change in the situation in the Gogra-Hot Springs sector either — as the PLA has linked the withdrawal there to Pangong Tso disengagement.
China watchers believe that the Ladakh situation will require a series of dialogues before an understanding between the two sides builds up on how to keep the LoAC quiet since the time the PLA infiltrated into Indian territory in the western sector. Due to the continuous infrastructure upgrade across the occupied Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh by China, the Chinese capacity to rapidly deploy along the LoAC is better than that of the Indian Army. This means that until a larger political understanding is reached, the Indian Army will have to be on alert all along the LoAC as it cannot allow the Chinese army to take advantage again.
Apart from Ladakh, there has been a PLA build-up in deep areas of Arunachal Pradesh with the enemy focus on Nyingchi. China is going to connect it soon to Lhasa by a rail line. China is building the rail route from Shigatse or Xigaze to Yatong or Yadong in Chumbi Valley, which will put pressure on the Siliguri corridor of India. The upgrade in Tibet and Xinjiang is designed not only to put pressure on India but also to consolidate the hold of Han Chinese in these sensitive areas as part of the Communist Party’s Sinicization programme.