26.9 C
New Delhi
Friday 18 October 2019
Sci-Tech Cyclone from S-W direction?

Cyclone from S-W direction?

-

- Advertisment -

The deep depression over east-central Arabian Sea further moved north-northwestwards and has intensified into a cyclonic storm (also known as ASHOBAA).  It is about 590 km west-southwest of Mumbai. It is further expected to move north-northwestwards to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 36 hours.

Forecast track and intensity of the system are given in the table below:

Date/Time(IST) Position

(Latitude 0N/ longitude 0E)

Maximum sustained surface

wind speed (kmph)

Category of cyclonic

disturbance

08.06.2015/0830 17.9/67.2 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
08.06.2015/1130 18.3/66.9 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
08.06.2015/1730 19.0/66.5 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
08.06.2015/2330 20.0/66.0 70-80 gusting to 90 Cyclonic Storm
09.06.2015/0530 21.0/65.3 80-90 gusting to 105 Cyclonic Storm
09.06.2015/1730 21.7/64.5 90-100 gusting to 120 Severe Cyclonic Storm
10.06.2015/0530 22.5/63.7 90-100 gusting to 120 Severe Cyclonic Storm
10.06.2015/1730 23.0/63.0 90-100 gusting to 120 Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.06.2015/0530 23.5/62.4 80-90 gusting to 105 Cyclonic Storm
11.06.2015/1730 23.9/61.8 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
12.06.2015/0530 24.3/61.0 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
12.06.2015/1730 24.5/60.5 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression

 

Under the influence of this system, rainfall would occur at most places with isolated heavy falls over coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa and south Gujarat during the next 24 hours.

Strong winds speed reaching 70-80 km/h gusting to 90 km/h would prevail along and off Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra coasts during next 24 h and 90-100 km/h gusting to 120 km/h during subsequent 24 h. Sea condition would be very rough to high along and off Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra coasts during the next 48 h.

Fishermen along and off Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48 hours. Fishermen out at open sea are advised to return to the coast.

Monsoon forecast

Since April 2015, weak El Nino conditions are established over equatorial Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric conditions like weakened trade winds, negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values etc generally associated with El Nino conditions are also observed. The latest forecast from IMD-IITM coupled model indicates El Nino conditions are likely to
strengthen further and reach to moderate strength during the monsoon season. There is about 90% probability of El Nino conditions to continue during the southwest monsoon season. Over Indian Ocean, currently, slight basin wide warming along with neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions is prevailing. The latest forecast from ESSO-IMD-IITM coupled model indicates about 50% probability of neutral IOD conditions to continue during the monsoon season.

The experimental forecast based on the ESSO-IMD-IITM coupled dynamical model suggest that the monsoon rainfall during the 2015 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 86%±5% of long period model average (LPMA). The experimental five category probability forecasts for the 2015 monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole using the experimental dynamical prediction system are 61% (deficient), 24% (below normal), 13% (normal), 2% (above normal) and 0% (excess).

Quantitatively, the season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 88% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%. The LPA rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

The 5 category probability forecasts for the Season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:

Met monsoon forecast

The season rainfall is likely to be 85% of LPA over North-West India, 90% of LPA over Central India, 92% of LPA over South Peninsula, and 90% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %.

The rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of its LPA during July and 90% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9%.

Subscribe to our newsletter

You will get all our latest news and articles via email when you subscribe

The email despatches will be non-commercial in nature
Disputes, if any, subject to jurisdiction in New Delhi

Leave a Reply

Opinion

Karva Chauth: Faith, legend behind viewing the moon through a sieve

The legend and Karva Chauth rituals vary across Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi and, in south India, Andhra Pradesh

Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, Here We Come!

Study Wuhan and Mamallapuram in the backdrop of the fact that things are not quite working out in China-Pakistan economic relations, notwithstanding the urge of the communist state to contain India and that of the Islamic state to challenge it

Slowdown Has Reasons Other Than GST, Demonetisation

When all economic sectors decline, the mood of the market turns sombre, turning investors all the more reluctant to pump in money; the interdependence of industries means that the slowdown suffered by one would affect many

Where China & India, Resisting & Improving Democracy, Meet

What you see in Hong Kong is China resisting democracy; what you see in Kashmir is India promoting it; a reasonably capitalist China does not offer freedom politically but India, held back at times by the choice of the people, is still opening up; there could be a point of convergence as the two nations move in opposite directions

Omega-3: Study published in BMJ claiming no benefit for type 2 diabetes has myopic vision

Most respondents in the omega-3 study published in the BMJ are from Europe and North America; such results can hardly be applied worldwide
- Advertisement -

Elsewhere

Pakistan-sponsored terrorists now sneaking into India are Afghan, Pashtun

A meeting attended by heads of Pakistan Army, ISI and terror outfits was held in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan where the plot was hatched

Manmohan Singh, is this your dissent or self-goal?

While the Congress is opposed to Veer Savarkar, Manmohan Singh tried today to not let the BJP take all the credit for recognising the freedom fighter

Pakistani F-16s chased Indian passenger plane in September

Two Pakistani F-16 aircraft tried to stop a SpiceJet aircraft on its way to Kabul carrying 120 passengers mid-air on 23 September

पाकिस्तान के साथ क्रिकेट संबंधों पर बोले सौरभ — मोदी, ख़ान तय करें

'पाकिस्तान के साथ खेलने के लिए हमें अनुमति लेनी होगी; अंतर्राष्ट्रीय दौरे सरकारों की अनुमति से होते हैं; हमारे पास इस सवाल का जवाब नहीं है'

Malaysia wants to import more from India after adverse comment on Kashmir

Mahathir Mohamad has always been supportive of Pakistan; India-Malaysia relations had improved after he was out of power in 2003

You might also likeRELATED
Recommended to you

%d bloggers like this: